San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- Victor WembanyamaAssists8
- Jeremy SochanRebounds13
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–123
- Q43.0Zach Collins makes 25-foot three pointer (Julian Champagnie assists)118–123
- Q411.1Spurs defensive team rebound115–123
- Q413.0Jaxson Hayes misses 25-foot step back jumpshot115–123
- Q432.2Julian Champagnie makes free throw 2 of 2115–123
- Q432.2Spurs offensive team rebound114–123
- Q432.2Julian Champagnie misses free throw 1 of 2114–123
- Q432.2Jalen Hood-Schifino shooting foul114–123
- Q436.0Blake Wesley enters the game for Keldon Johnson114–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:17Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 13 – 7 LAL · SA 28% → 34% +6SA 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q17:20Rui Hachimura makes 27-foot three point shot (Austin Reaves assists)SA 15 – 12 LAL · LAL 65% → 71% +6LAL 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q31:12Malaki Branham makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cedi Osman assists)SA 90 – 93 LAL · SA 16% → 24% +8SA 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q347.1Austin Reaves makes 29-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)SA 90 – 96 LAL · LAL 76% → 84% +8LAL 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q411:48Malaki Branham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cedi Osman assists)SA 93 – 97 LAL · SA 13% → 21% +8SA 13% → 21%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9.5
- LAL 82%
- Fair odds
- LAL -344
- SA +344 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.5 – 123.9 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1359 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAL and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | +32 | SA: Usual rotation · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +263 Elo | LAL 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 117.013th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 117.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 113.018th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 102.86th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–24 | Road vs home | 19–910th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.