San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- Devin VassellAssists6
- Zach CollinsRebounds12
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Daniel GaffordRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–116
- Q411.1shot clock turnover93–116
- Q434.1Blake Wesley out of bounds lost ball turnover93–116
- Q447.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 1-foot dunk93–116
- Q450.0Malaki Branham bad pass (Olivier-Maxence Prosper steals)93–114
- Q41:05Zach Collins defensive rebound93–114
- Q41:09Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 13-foot jumper93–114
- Q41:09Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound93–114
- Q41:12Jaden Hardy misses 9-foot pullup jump shot93–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:50Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)SA 28 – 16 DAL · DAL 43% → 50% +7DAL 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q12:44Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)SA 30 – 23 DAL · DAL 54% → 61% +7DAL 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q24:31Kyrie Irving makes 28-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)SA 50 – 46 DAL · DAL 54% → 62% +8DAL 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q22:59Josh Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)SA 50 – 51 DAL · DAL 67% → 74% +7DAL 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q245.0Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)SA 51 – 54 DAL · DAL 71% → 78% +7DAL 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -9.5
- DAL 82%
- Fair odds
- DAL -344
- SA +344 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.4 – 123.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +63 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +259 Elo | DAL 81.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 118.78th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 117.720th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 116.111th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 115.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 102.27th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 306–22 | Road vs home | 16–1319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.