San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints32
- Tre JonesAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints28
- Domantas SabonisAssists11
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–127
- Q40.0(00:00) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–127
- Q44.0Malik Monk defensive rebound122–127
- Q46.1Jeremy Sochan misses 17-foot two point shot122–127
- Q414.0Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2122–127
- Q414.0Harrison Barnes enters the game for Kevin Huerter122–126
- Q414.0Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2122–126
- Q414.0Devin Vassell personal take foul122–125
- Q424.0Tre Jones makes driving layup (Devin Vassell assists)122–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:37Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 114 – 114 SAC · SA 23% → 43% +20SA 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q42:12Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 120 – 116 SAC · SA 54% → 80% +26SA 54% → 80%+26 pts
- Q42:01Malik Monk makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotSA 120 – 118 SAC · SAC 19% → 35% +16SAC 19% → 35%+16 pts
- Q41:21De'Aaron Fox makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SA 120 – 121 SAC · SAC 30% → 66% +36SAC 30% → 66%+36 pts
- Q458.0Keegan Murray makes 1-foot dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 120 – 123 SAC · SAC 67% → 88% +21SAC 67% → 88%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6.5
- SAC 75%
- Fair odds
- SAC -268
- SA +268 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.6 – 122.1 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +21 | SA: Usual rotation · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +188 Elo | SAC 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 118.48th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 117.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.6 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 115.414th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 114.920th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.611th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–23 | Road vs home | 15–913th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.