San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints27
- Tre JonesAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints26
- Jordan ClarksonAssists10
- John CollinsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–128
- Q419.2Zach Collins makes free throw 1 of 1109–128
- Q419.2Omer Yurtseven shooting foul108–128
- Q419.2Zach Collins makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Blake Wesley assists)108–128
- Q430.0Omer Yurtseven makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kira Lewis Jr. assists)106–128
- Q434.1Kira Lewis Jr. offensive rebound106–125
- Q438.1Johnny Juzang misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot106–125
- Q449.0Malaki Branham makes free throw 2 of 2106–125
- Q449.0Malaki Branham makes free throw 1 of 2105–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:51Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)SA 6 – 5 UTAH · UTAH 63% → 69% +6UTAH 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q16:53Keyonte George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)SA 8 – 10 UTAH · UTAH 69% → 74% +6UTAH 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q14:40Devin Vassell makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Blake Wesley assists)SA 11 – 14 UTAH · SA 19% → 24% +5SA 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q14:14Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)SA 11 – 17 UTAH · UTAH 76% → 81% +5UTAH 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q13:36Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotSA 13 – 20 UTAH · UTAH 77% → 82% +5UTAH 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -6
- UTAH 72%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -254
- SA +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 116.9 – 124.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +36 | SA: Usual rotation · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +167 Elo | UTAH 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 71.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 117.89th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 120.626th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.5 | Margin | −2.822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 114.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 117.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.3 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–25 | Road vs home | 17–1115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.