Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints39
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints26
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game124–120
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime124–120
- OT1.2Timberwolves offensive team rebound124–120
- OT1.2Mike Conley misses 23-foot step back jumpshot124–120
- OT7.1Trey Lyles makes free throw 2 of 2124–120
- OT7.1Kings offensive team rebound123–120
- OT7.1Trey Lyles misses free throw 1 of 2123–120
- OT7.1Rudy Gobert enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns123–120
- OT7.1Karl-Anthony Towns personal take foul123–120
- OT7.1Trey Lyles defensive rebound123–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:37Malik Monk makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 113 – 111 MIN · SAC 35% → 61% +26SAC 35% → 61%+26 pts
- Q41:42Naz Reid makes 3-foot layup (Jaden McDaniels assists)SAC 113 – 114 MIN · MIN 44% → 66% +22MIN 44% → 66%+22 pts
- Q41:33Malik Monk makes driving layupSAC 115 – 114 MIN · SAC 34% → 56% +23SAC 34% → 56%+23 pts
- OT2:37Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 120 – 120 MIN · SAC 20% → 43% +23SAC 20% → 43%+23 pts
- OT2:05Malik Monk makes 23-foot three pointerSAC 123 – 120 MIN · SAC 44% → 73% +29SAC 44% → 73%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10
- MIN 83%
- Fair odds
- MIN -316
- SAC +316 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 108.3 – 117.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1628 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +54 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +276 Elo | MIN 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 113.619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 106.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 106.51st of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.424th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 22–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.