Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints28
- Duncan RobinsonAssists11
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints28
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–110
- Q40.1Bam Adebayo defensive rebound121–110
- Q40.1Kevin Huerter misses 29-foot step back jumpshot121–110
- Q411.1Delon Wright makes free throw 2 of 2121–110
- Q411.1Delon Wright makes free throw 1 of 2120–110
- Q411.1Trey Lyles personal take foul119–110
- Q415.0(00:15.2) [Kings] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Kings] charged with a timeout119–110
- Q415.0Kings Full timeout119–110
- Q415.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Haywood Highsmith119–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:37Kevin Love makes 27-foot three point shot (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 42 – 47 SAC · MIA 23% → 34% +11MIA 23% → 34%+11 pts
- Q44:07De'Aaron Fox makes 14-foot two point shotMIA 110 – 106 SAC · SAC 15% → 25% +10SAC 15% → 25%+10 pts
- Q43:41De'Aaron Fox makes two point shotMIA 110 – 108 SAC · SAC 24% → 37% +13SAC 24% → 37%+13 pts
- Q43:11Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 12-foot two point shotMIA 112 – 108 SAC · MIA 65% → 78% +14MIA 65% → 78%+14 pts
- Q42:33Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotMIA 114 – 108 SAC · MIA 81% → 91% +10MIA 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- SAC 51%
- Fair odds
- SAC -122
- MIA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.5 – 113.0 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | +20 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −46 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +10 Elo | SAC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 118.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 115.713th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 114.921st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.611th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 16–912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−21 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by league−46 Elo
Kings
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.