Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds9
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints23
- Zion WilliamsonAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–95
- Q46.0Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound106–95
- Q48.1Trey Murphy III misses 23-foot three point jumper106–95
- Q416.0Trey Murphy III enters the game for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl106–95
- Q416.0Pelicans Full timeout106–95
- Q416.0Duncan Robinson makes 3-foot dunk (Bam Adebayo assists)106–95
- Q418.1Heat Full timeout104–95
- Q418.1Jordan Hawkins personal foul104–95
- Q420.1Caleb Martin defensive rebound104–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:17Jordan Hawkins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)MIA 77 – 74 NO · NO 31% → 41% +10NO 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q49:58Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)MIA 86 – 86 NO · NO 38% → 52% +14NO 38% → 52%+14 pts
- Q49:28Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumperMIA 89 – 86 NO · MIA 48% → 62% +14MIA 48% → 62%+14 pts
- Q48:31Jordan Hawkins makes 26-foot three point shot (Herbert Jones assists)MIA 89 – 91 NO · NO 47% → 61% +15NO 47% → 61%+15 pts
- Q48:13Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)MIA 92 – 91 NO · MIA 39% → 53% +15MIA 39% → 53%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 58%
- Fair odds
- NO -117
- MIA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 108.0 – 109.2 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +33 | +47 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +55 Elo | NO 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 116.614th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 112.18th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 116.012th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.58th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.4 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 17–1013th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.