Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints22
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints28
- Zion WilliamsonAssists9
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–127
- Q413.1Nate Williams bad pass (Matt Ryan steals)105–127
- Q415.1Cody Zeller makes dunk (Jose Alvarado assists)105–127
- Q435.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound105–125
- Q439.0Jae'Sean Tate misses 26-foot three point jumper105–125
- Q444.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound105–125
- Q447.0Jordan Hawkins misses two point shot105–125
- Q41:00Cam Whitmore makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nate Williams assists)105–125
- Q41:02Nate Williams offensive rebound102–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:50Jonas Valanciunas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)HOU 15 – 16 NO · NO 64% → 70% +6NO 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q12:49CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point shot (Naji Marshall assists)HOU 22 – 24 NO · NO 65% → 71% +6NO 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q10.1Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)HOU 27 – 31 NO · NO 69% → 75% +6NO 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q210:11Jeff Green makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 38 – 37 NO · HOU 29% → 36% +7HOU 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q22:20Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three pointer (CJ McCollum assists)HOU 50 – 58 NO · NO 76% → 82% +6NO 76% → 82%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6.5
- NO 73%
- Fair odds
- NO -222
- HOU +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.0 – 116.1 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | +38 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +175 Elo | NO 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.3 | Points scored | 116.514th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 112.28th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 115.913th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.78th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 16–1016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.