Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints33
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints21
- James HardenAssists8
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–107
- Q421.2Keegan Murray defensive rebound123–107
- Q427.0Norman Powell misses 26-foot three point jumper123–107
- Q442.0Davion Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)123–107
- Q41:03Daniel Theis makes two point shot120–107
- Q41:03Daniel Theis offensive rebound120–105
- Q41:03Norman Powell misses driving floating jump shot120–105
- Q41:25Kessler Edwards enters the game for Domantas Sabonis120–105
- Q41:25Davion Mitchell enters the game for De'Aaron Fox120–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:04Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)SAC 54 – 51 LAC · LAC 41% → 49% +9LAC 41% → 49%+9 pts
- Q31:32Norman Powell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)SAC 85 – 78 LAC · LAC 20% → 29% +9LAC 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q49:34Keegan Murray makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 94 – 86 LAC · SAC 68% → 79% +11SAC 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q46:41Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot dunk (James Harden assists)SAC 103 – 98 LAC · LAC 19% → 28% +8LAC 19% → 28%+8 pts
- Q46:30Malik Monk makes 26-foot step back jumpshotSAC 106 – 98 LAC · SAC 73% → 85% +12SAC 73% → 85%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4.5
- LAC 68%
- Fair odds
- LAC -154
- SAC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 117.1 – 120.4 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +10 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +128 Elo | LAC 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 117.710th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 112.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +5.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 117.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 112.813th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 99.819th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 20–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–2 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.