Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints21
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–117
- Q412.1Jay Huff defensive rebound96–117
- Q415.1Keon Ellis misses two point shot96–117
- Q416.0Keon Ellis offensive rebound96–117
- Q419.1Kessler Edwards misses two point shot96–117
- Q423.1Kessler Edwards defensive rebound96–117
- Q426.0Hunter Tyson misses driving layup96–117
- Q440.1Chris Duarte makes 3-foot two point shot96–117
- Q454.0Chris Duarte defensive rebound94–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:01Christian Braun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)SAC 27 – 24 DEN · DEN 50% → 57% +7DEN 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q153.2Chris Duarte makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Trey Lyles assists)SAC 32 – 26 DEN · SAC 44% → 51% +7SAC 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q10.1Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 35 – 28 DEN · SAC 46% → 53% +7SAC 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q25:32Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)SAC 47 – 44 DEN · DEN 46% → 54% +8DEN 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q23:57Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)SAC 51 – 51 DEN · DEN 54% → 62% +8DEN 54% → 62%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 67%
- Fair odds
- DEN -187
- SAC +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.1 – 116.9 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | +30 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | SAC crossed 1 time zone and DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +126 Elo | DEN 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 114.517th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 110.77th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 116.37th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 112.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 22–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 3–0 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.