Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints23
- Stephen CurryAssists4
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–103
- Q414.1Jay Huff makes free throw 2 of 2119–103
- Q414.1Jay Huff makes free throw 1 of 2118–103
- Q414.1Usman Garuba shooting foul117–103
- Q414.1Jay Huff offensive rebound117–103
- Q416.1Braxton Key misses driving layup117–103
- Q435.1Braxton Key defensive rebound117–103
- Q438.2Lester Quinones misses 15-foot step back jumpshot117–103
- Q445.1Usman Garuba offensive rebound117–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:45Jamal Murray makes 28-foot three point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 70 – 65 GS · DEN 51% → 60% +9DEN 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q33:26Stephen Curry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)DEN 82 – 79 GS · GS 34% → 44% +11GS 34% → 44%+11 pts
- Q32:49Lester Quinones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)DEN 82 – 82 GS · GS 44% → 55% +11GS 44% → 55%+11 pts
- Q32:24Reggie Jackson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 85 – 82 GS · DEN 45% → 57% +11DEN 45% → 57%+11 pts
- Q410:22Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dario Saric assists)DEN 93 – 90 GS · GS 28% → 41% +12GS 28% → 41%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 67%
- Fair odds
- GS -143
- DEN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.6 – 116.3 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +40 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +121 Elo | GS 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 119.56th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 117.420th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 116.111th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 114.117th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 16–1421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 3–0 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.