Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints34
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- James HardenAssists9
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–112
- Q41.0Cam Reddish makes dunk (LeBron James assists)116–112
- Q45.1LeBron James defensive rebound114–112
- Q47.0Kawhi Leonard misses 12-foot two point shot114–112
- Q49.1Amir Coffey enters the game for Daniel Theis114–112
- Q49.1Cam Reddish enters the game for D'Angelo Russell114–112
- Q49.1Clippers Full timeout114–112
- Q414.1James Harden defensive rebound114–112
- Q417.0LeBron James misses driving floating jump shot114–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:36LeBron James makes 26-foot step back jumpshotLAL 104 – 106 LAC · LAL 20% → 37% +17LAL 20% → 37%+17 pts
- Q43:10Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 109 – 106 LAC · LAL 50% → 73% +23LAL 50% → 73%+23 pts
- Q42:05James Harden makes driving layupLAL 111 – 108 LAC · LAC 11% → 23% +12LAC 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q41:12D'Angelo Russell makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 114 – 108 LAC · LAL 84% → 98% +14LAL 84% → 98%+14 pts
- Q436.1Kawhi Leonard makes driving layup (James Harden assists)LAL 114 – 112 LAC · LAC 3% → 18% +14LAC 3% → 18%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- LAC 52%
- Fair odds
- LAC -102
- LAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.8 – 119.0 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −28 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +15 Elo | LAC 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 50.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 117.610th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 112.910th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +4.75th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 117.75th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 113.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.8 | Pace | 99.719th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 20–76th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 2–1 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.