Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints24
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds22
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–123
- Q410.1Jaxson Hayes makes alley oop layup (Dylan Windler assists)113–123
- Q423.1Skylar Mays defensive rebound111–123
- Q425.1Drew Eubanks misses 2-foot two point shot111–123
- Q436.0David Roddy defensive rebound111–123
- Q439.0Taurean Prince misses driving layup111–123
- Q453.0Dylan Windler enters the game for LeBron James111–123
- Q453.0Jaxson Hayes enters the game for Austin Reaves111–123
- Q453.0Max Christie enters the game for Anthony Davis111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:29Bol Bol makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAL 17 – 28 PHX · PHX 68% → 76% +8PHX 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q33:21Max Christie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)LAL 86 – 88 PHX · LAL 31% → 41% +10LAL 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q356.1Grayson Allen makes 29-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)LAL 90 – 95 PHX · PHX 60% → 71% +11PHX 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q410:47Grayson Allen makes 22-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)LAL 90 – 98 PHX · PHX 72% → 82% +10PHX 72% → 82%+10 pts
- Q43:29Grayson Allen makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)LAL 104 – 113 PHX · PHX 88% → 96% +8PHX 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 56%
- Fair odds
- PHX -114
- LAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.9 – 119.9 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +34 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +41 Elo | PHX 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 117.411th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 114.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.911th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 116.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 113.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 18–1113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.