Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints28
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Bol BolRebounds14
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints23
- Fred VanVleetAssists5
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–114
- Q44.0Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2110–114
- Q44.0Amen Thompson enters the game for Cam Whitmore110–113
- Q44.0Rockets offensive team rebound110–113
- Q44.0Alperen Sengun misses free throw 1 of 2110–113
- Q44.0Grayson Allen personal take foul110–113
- Q44.1Rockets offensive team rebound110–113
- Q44.1Eric Gordon enters the game for Drew Eubanks110–113
- Q44.1Aaron Holiday enters the game for Amen Thompson110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:39Bol Bol makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 96 – 96 HOU · PHX 35% → 52% +16PHX 35% → 52%+16 pts
- Q43:49Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Amen Thompson assists)PHX 100 – 103 HOU · HOU 49% → 70% +21HOU 49% → 70%+21 pts
- Q437.0Bol Bol makes 3-foot dunk (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 106 – 107 HOU · PHX 9% → 33% +24PHX 9% → 33%+24 pts
- Q418.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 108 – 109 HOU · PHX 10% → 26% +16PHX 10% → 26%+16 pts
- Q417.0Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2PHX 108 – 110 HOU · HOU 75% → 91% +16HOU 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 60%
- Fair odds
- PHX -121
- HOU +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.0 – 114.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | HOU and PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | −20 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +74 Elo | PHX 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 113.221st of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 113.09th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +0.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 111.224th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 111.05th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.5 | Pace | 100.813th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 19–99th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.