Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints35
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Royce O'NealeRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints41
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–123
- Q420.0Josh Okogie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Saben Lee assists)113–123
- Q428.0Saben Lee defensive rebound110–123
- Q431.0Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot110–123
- Q443.1Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound110–123
- Q447.1Nassir Little misses driving floating jump shot110–123
- Q451.1Nassir Little defensive rebound110–123
- Q454.2Jaden Hardy misses driving layup110–123
- Q41:02Josh Okogie enters the game for Kevin Durant110–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q238.1Derrick Jones Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)PHX 61 – 58 DAL · DAL 41% → 50% +9DAL 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q311:25Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point shot (Josh Green assists)PHX 63 – 63 DAL · DAL 49% → 58% +9DAL 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q35:03Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 80 – 81 DAL · PHX 30% → 40% +10PHX 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q34:41Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)PHX 80 – 84 DAL · DAL 60% → 70% +10DAL 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q316.0Nassir Little makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)PHX 91 – 96 DAL · PHX 16% → 25% +9PHX 16% → 25%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 59%
- Fair odds
- DAL -161
- PHX +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.6 – 120.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +57 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +61 Elo | DAL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 118.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 117.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 116.011th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 114.718th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.5 | Pace | 102.28th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 17–1318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–1 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.