Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Simone FontecchioPoints18
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Shake MiltonRebounds9
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints25
- Jusuf NurkicAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–116
- Q423.1Malachi Flynn makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Muscala assists)100–116
- Q431.1Tosan Evbuomwan defensive rebound97–116
- Q432.2Saben Lee misses free throw 2 of 297–116
- Q432.2Saben Lee makes free throw 1 of 297–116
- Q432.2Mike Muscala shooting foul97–115
- Q439.2Mike Muscala makes two point shot97–115
- Q440.1Mike Muscala offensive rebound95–115
- Q445.1Shake Milton misses 23-foot three point jumper95–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Eric Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)DET 2 – 3 PHX · PHX 71% → 77% +5PHX 71% → 77%+5 pts
- Q110:30Devin Booker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)DET 2 – 6 PHX · PHX 76% → 81% +5PHX 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q16:13Kevin Durant makes 7-foot two point shot (Eric Gordon assists)DET 15 – 16 PHX · PHX 72% → 76% +4PHX 72% → 76%+4 pts
- Q14:11Shake Milton makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 19 – 23 PHX · DET 15% → 20% +4DET 15% → 20%+4 pts
- Q13:23Ausar Thompson makes tip shotDET 23 – 23 PHX · DET 23% → 27% +4DET 23% → 27%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -9
- PHX 81%
- Fair odds
- PHX -301
- DET +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.9 – 123.3 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHX and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +9 | +25 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +256 Elo | PHX 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.1 | Points scored | 117.611th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.1 | Points allowed | 114.615th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +3.011th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 116.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.7 | Defense rating | 113.515th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.2 | Pace | 100.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–22 | Road vs home | 17–1115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.