Washington Wizards at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints32
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds10
Clippers- James HardenPoints28
- James HardenAssists8
- Mason PlumleeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–140
- Q415.1Johnny Davis makes 2-foot two point shot (Jared Butler assists)115–140
- Q421.1Jared Butler defensive rebound113–140
- Q423.2Brandon Boston Jr. misses 7-foot two point shot113–140
- Q436.1Moussa Diabate defensive rebound113–140
- Q440.1Justin Champagnie misses 26-foot three point jumper113–140
- Q451.1Moussa Diabate makes tip shot113–140
- Q451.1Moussa Diabate offensive rebound113–138
- Q452.1Bones Hyland misses 26-foot three point jumper113–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:47Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 10 – 4 LAC · WSH 23% → 29% +5WSH 23% → 29%+5 pts
- Q16:36Daniel Theis makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)WSH 14 – 15 LAC · LAC 77% → 82% +5LAC 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q11:24Deni Avdija makes 26-foot step back jumpshotWSH 28 – 30 LAC · WSH 14% → 18% +4WSH 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q11:12Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)WSH 28 – 33 LAC · LAC 82% → 86% +4LAC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q29:11James Harden makes 25-foot step back jumpshotWSH 36 – 43 LAC · LAC 84% → 88% +4LAC 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -11.5
- LAC 87%
- Fair odds
- LAC -447
- WSH +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.4 – 123.8 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | +11 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +327 Elo | LAC 86.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 117.510th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.4 | Points allowed | 112.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.7 | Margin | +4.55th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 117.75th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 113.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Pace | 99.719th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–25 | Road vs home | 20–87th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.