Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints34
- Tyus JonesAssists11
- Deni AvdijaRebounds15
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints40
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game131–134
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime131–134
- OT3.1Rui Hachimura defensive rebound131–134
- OT7.2Kyle Kuzma misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot131–134
- OT17.1Corey Kispert enters the game for Deni Avdija131–134
- OT17.1Spencer Dinwiddie enters the game for D'Angelo Russell131–134
- OT17.1Wizards Full timeout131–134
- OT17.1Anthony Davis out of bounds lost ball turnover131–134
- OT27.0Austin Reaves offensive rebound131–134
- OT30.1LeBron James misses 8-foot two point shot131–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:09Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 121 – 120 LAL · WSH 28% → 51% +23WSH 28% → 51%+23 pts
- Q41:03Anthony Davis makes 6-foot two point shot (LeBron James assists)WSH 123 – 124 LAL · LAL 40% → 67% +27LAL 40% → 67%+27 pts
- Q443.1Jordan Poole makes 27-foot step back jumpshotWSH 126 – 124 LAL · WSH 31% → 78% +47WSH 31% → 78%+47 pts
- Q424.0Austin Reaves makes 7-foot two point shotWSH 126 – 126 LAL · LAL 14% → 52% +38LAL 14% → 52%+38 pts
- OT3:12LeBron James makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 131 – 131 LAL · LAL 33% → 57% +24LAL 33% → 57%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9
- LAL 81%
- Fair odds
- LAL -297
- WSH +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 116.5 – 124.8 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1341 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −16 | +22 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +248 Elo | LAL 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 117.013th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.2 | Points allowed | 117.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.9 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–24 | Road vs home | 20–98th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.