Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints25
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints27
- Tyus JonesAssists17
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–112
- Q422.2Kyle Kuzma makes two point shot123–112
- Q432.0Moses Moody makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lester Quinones assists)123–110
- Q455.0Kyle Kuzma bad pass (Moses Moody steals)120–110
- Q458.0Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound120–110
- Q41:02Moses Moody misses 26-foot three point jumper120–110
- Q41:16Jordan Poole makes two point shot120–110
- Q41:19Moses Moody bad pass (Jordan Poole steals)120–108
- Q41:29Moses Moody enters the game for Klay Thompson120–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:27Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 30 – 33 WSH · GS 48% → 56% +7GS 48% → 56%+7 pts
- Q231.1Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointer (Klay Thompson assists)GS 60 – 56 WSH · GS 64% → 72% +8GS 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q311:07Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 65 – 60 WSH · GS 66% → 74% +8GS 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q38:53Corey Kispert makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)GS 70 – 67 WSH · WSH 23% → 31% +8WSH 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q38:13Stephen Curry makes 30-foot three point shot (Draymond Green assists)GS 73 – 67 WSH · GS 69% → 77% +8GS 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -7
- GS 76%
- Fair odds
- GS -189
- WSH +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 123.0 – 118.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | −7 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | GS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +198 Elo | GS 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 114.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 124.230th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −9.829th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 108.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 118.328th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 105.01st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 3–2430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.