Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints21
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–147
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–147
- Q417.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Johnny Davis assists)106–147
- Q424.0Johnny Davis defensive rebound103–147
- Q427.1Adam Flagler misses 26-foot three point jumper103–147
- Q441.1Jared Butler makes driving layup103–147
- Q457.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. defensive rebound101–147
- Q41:00Adam Flagler misses running pullup jump shot101–147
- Q41:03Keyontae Johnson defensive rebound101–147
- Q41:07Justin Champagnie misses 23-foot three point jumper101–147
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:20Jalen Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)WSH 4 – 4 OKC · OKC 76% → 80% +5OKC 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q15:39Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)WSH 13 – 15 OKC · OKC 77% → 82% +5OKC 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q14:49Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)WSH 15 – 20 OKC · OKC 82% → 86% +4OKC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q12:31Kenrich Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)WSH 23 – 29 OKC · OKC 83% → 87% +4OKC 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q28:50Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)WSH 40 – 48 OKC · OKC 85% → 89% +4OKC 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 87%
- Fair odds
- OKC -418
- WSH +418 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.0 – 124.9 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1354 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | OKC and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | +22 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +324 Elo | OKC 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 80.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 121.04th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 113.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.3 | Margin | +7.52nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 118.43rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 111.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–23 | Road vs home | 22–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.