Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints22
- Caris LeVertAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints31
- Tyus JonesAssists11
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–105
- Q42.1Darius Garland defensive rebound114–105
- Q45.0Landry Shamet misses 23-foot three point jumper114–105
- Q47.0Wizards Full timeout114–105
- Q47.0Caris LeVert makes free throw 2 of 2114–105
- Q47.0Caris LeVert makes free throw 1 of 2113–105
- Q47.0Jared Butler enters the game for Jordan Poole112–105
- Q47.0Jordan Poole personal take foul112–105
- Q411.1Caris LeVert defensive rebound112–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:17Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three pointer (Patrick Baldwin Jr. assists)CLE 88 – 94 WSH · WSH 49% → 63% +14WSH 49% → 63%+14 pts
- Q48:17Darius Garland makes 29-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 91 – 94 WSH · CLE 34% → 49% +15CLE 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q47:47Darius Garland makes 28-foot three point shot (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 94 – 94 WSH · CLE 48% → 63% +15CLE 48% → 63%+15 pts
- Q45:52Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point shot (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 97 – 95 WSH · CLE 56% → 72% +17CLE 56% → 72%+17 pts
- Q44:29Caris LeVert makes 27-foot three point jumperCLE 102 – 97 WSH · CLE 73% → 87% +14CLE 73% → 87%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -12
- CLE 87%
- Fair odds
- CLE -402
- WSH +402 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.4 – 108.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1348 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | −25 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +337 Elo | CLE 87.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 79.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 80.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 114.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 124.430th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −9.929th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 109.026th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 118.427th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.5 | Pace | 105.01st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–9 | Road vs home | 3–2330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.