Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints46
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds16
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints22
- DeMar DeRozanAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–97
- Q418.0MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound113–97
- Q420.0Andre Drummond misses two point shot113–97
- Q435.1Onuralp Bitim defensive goaltending violation113–97
- Q435.1AJ Green makes 1-foot layup (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)113–97
- Q447.0MarJon Beauchamp enters the game for Pat Connaughton111–97
- Q447.0Dalen Terry out of bounds bad pass turnover111–97
- Q447.2Dalen Terry defensive rebound111–97
- Q450.0AJ Green misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot111–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:59Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 44 – 35 CHI · MIL 61% → 68% +7MIL 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q311:15Alex Caruso makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMIL 58 – 49 CHI · CHI 22% → 29% +7CHI 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q310:19Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 61 – 51 CHI · MIL 66% → 74% +8MIL 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q38:36Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)MIL 64 – 54 CHI · CHI 18% → 25% +7CHI 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q410:52AJ Green makes 25-foot three pointer (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 87 – 76 CHI · MIL 79% → 87% +8MIL 79% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 52%
- Fair odds
- CHI -129
- MIL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.2 – 117.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | +23 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +17 Elo | CHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.6 | Points scored | 111.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 113.112th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −1.220th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 112.420th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 113.617th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.7 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 16–1420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.