Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints28
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds7
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints22
- Ayo DosunmuAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–112
- Q410.1Jevon Carter makes driving floating jump shot (Terry Taylor assists)129–112
- Q424.1Payton Pritchard bad pass (Dalen Terry steals)129–110
- Q430.1Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound129–110
- Q430.1Xavier Tillman blocks Onuralp Bitim 's 1-foot driving layup129–110
- Q440.1Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Payton Pritchard assists)129–110
- Q449.1Payton Pritchard defensive rebound126–110
- Q452.0Onuralp Bitim misses 22-foot three point jumper126–110
- Q41:04Bulls defensive team rebound126–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:37Jaylen Brown makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 59 – 57 CHI · BOS 53% → 61% +8BOS 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q27.1Coby White makes 24-foot three pointer (Alex Caruso assists)BOS 59 – 62 CHI · CHI 45% → 53% +9CHI 45% → 53%+9 pts
- Q310:35Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three pointer (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 63 – 62 CHI · BOS 49% → 58% +9BOS 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q38:55Derrick White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 67 – 62 CHI · BOS 61% → 70% +9BOS 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q36:47Derrick White makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 76 – 69 CHI · BOS 67% → 76% +8BOS 67% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4
- BOS 66%
- Fair odds
- BOS -136
- CHI +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.4 – 113.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1655 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +43 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +117 Elo | BOS 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 111.826th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 112.911th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.1 | Margin | −1.120th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 112.620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.9 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–9 | Road vs home | 15–1219th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.