Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints25
- Caris LeVertAssists15
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints35
- Coby WhiteAssists12
- Andre DrummondRebounds26
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game123–132
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime123–132
- 2OT6.1Andre Drummond defensive rebound123–131
- 2OT8.0Max Strus misses 25-foot three point jumper123–131
- 2OT15.2DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2123–132
- 2OT15.2Andre Drummond enters the game for Julian Phillips123–131
- 2OT15.2Darius Garland enters the game for Jarrett Allen123–131
- 2OT15.2DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2123–131
- 2OT15.2Max Strus personal foul123–130
- 2OT16.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 1123–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:14Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot step back jumpshotCLE 103 – 100 CHI · CLE 53% → 79% +26CLE 53% → 79%+26 pts
- OT3:42Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 106 – 106 CHI · CLE 32% → 53% +22CLE 32% → 53%+22 pts
- OT2:54Darius Garland makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 109 – 106 CHI · CLE 53% → 76% +23CLE 53% → 76%+23 pts
- OT1:23Caris LeVert makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 112 – 108 CHI · CLE 64% → 90% +26CLE 64% → 90%+26 pts
- OT12.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 3 of 3CLE 115 – 115 CHI · CHI 21% → 49% +29CHI 21% → 49%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Fair odds
- CLE -164
- CHI +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 111.6 – 107.8 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1608 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +76 | +27 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +147 Elo | CLE 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 111.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 113.011th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −1.420th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 112.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 113.817th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–9 | Road vs home | 15–1420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–0 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.