Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints25
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–95
- Q411.0shot clock turnover105–95
- Q423.1Jalen Duren offensive rebound105–95
- Q426.2Cade Cunningham misses free throw 2 of 2105–95
- Q426.2Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2105–95
- Q426.2Andre Drummond personal foul104–95
- Q437.2Cade Cunningham defensive rebound104–95
- Q441.0Nikola Vucevic misses 24-foot three point jumper104–95
- Q443.0Ayo Dosunmu offensive rebound104–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:27Dalen Terry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)DET 79 – 80 CHI · CHI 57% → 69% +12CHI 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q410:48Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)DET 82 – 80 CHI · DET 31% → 44% +12DET 31% → 44%+12 pts
- Q49:12Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot step back jumpshotDET 85 – 82 CHI · DET 36% → 50% +14DET 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q46:39Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)DET 92 – 88 CHI · DET 44% → 60% +17DET 44% → 60%+17 pts
- Q44:43Cade Cunningham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)DET 98 – 90 CHI · DET 72% → 86% +14DET 72% → 86%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -9
- CHI 81%
- Fair odds
- CHI -373
- DET +373 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.0 – 121.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1354 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | +30 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +257 Elo | CHI 81.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 78.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 78.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.8 | Points scored | 111.825th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.8 | Points allowed | 113.111th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.0 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 112.620th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.2 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–25 | Road vs home | 15–1319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.