Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds16
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists12
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–113
- Q41.1Josh Hart offensive rebound111–113
- Q41.1Josh Hart misses free throw 2 of 2111–113
- Q41.1Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2111–113
- Q41.1Ausar Thompson personal foul111–112
- Q41.1Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound111–112
- Q42.1Josh Hart misses free throw 1 of 1111–112
- Q42.1Jalen Duren shooting foul111–112
- Q42.1Josh Hart makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)111–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:50Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 101 – 104 NY · NY 58% → 76% +18NY 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q43:49Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 106 – 104 NY · DET 36% → 57% +22DET 36% → 57%+22 pts
- Q42:00Ausar Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 109 – 110 NY · DET 12% → 35% +22DET 12% → 35%+22 pts
- Q437.1Quentin Grimes makes driving layup (Simone Fontecchio assists)DET 111 – 110 NY · DET 30% → 65% +35DET 30% → 65%+35 pts
- Q42.1Josh Hart makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 111 – 112 NY · NY 3% → 97% +95NY 3% → 97%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9
- NY 81%
- Fair odds
- NY -286
- DET +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.2 – 117.1 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1356 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | −16 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +249 Elo | NY 80.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.8 | Points scored | 114.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.9 | Points allowed | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +4.46th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 116.29th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 111.79th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 98.329th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 30th of 304–24 | Road vs home | 19–99th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.