Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints15
- Cole AnthonyAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Jaden IveyAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–109
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound112–109
- Q40.1Cade Cunningham misses 72-foot three point jumper112–109
- Q40.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 1112–109
- Q40.1Jalen Duren shooting foul111–109
- Q40.1Paolo Banchero makes 18-foot step back jumpshot111–109
- Q412.1Gary Harris enters the game for Jonathan Isaac109–109
- Q412.1Ausar Thompson enters the game for Evan Fournier109–109
- Q412.1Quentin Grimes enters the game for Jaden Ivey109–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:41Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 106 – 99 DET · ORL 77% → 89% +11ORL 77% → 89%+11 pts
- Q41:49Franz Wagner makes driving layupORL 108 – 105 DET · ORL 64% → 81% +18ORL 64% → 81%+18 pts
- Q41:20Cade Cunningham makes 13-foot step back jumpshotORL 109 – 107 DET · DET 9% → 24% +15DET 9% → 24%+15 pts
- Q412.1Cade Cunningham makes driving layupORL 109 – 109 DET · DET 5% → 49% +44DET 5% → 49%+44 pts
- Q40.1Paolo Banchero makes 18-foot step back jumpshotORL 111 – 109 DET · ORL 50% → 100% +50ORL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6
- ORL 72%
- Fair odds
- ORL -199
- DET +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.4 – 111.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −7 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +164 Elo | ORL 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 112.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 122.127th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −9.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 109.525th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 118.528th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.5 | Pace | 102.47th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 4–2329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.