Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints25
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–129
- Q410.1shot clock turnover115–129
- Q434.1Ausar Thompson makes 13-foot two point shot115–129
- Q449.0Pascal Siakam personal foul113–129
- Q41:00Myles Turner makes 4-foot two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)113–129
- Q41:19Pacers Full timeout111–127
- Q41:19Pascal Siakam defensive goaltending violation111–127
- Q41:19Simone Fontecchio makes two point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)113–127
- Q41:22Tyrese Haliburton bad pass (Ausar Thompson steals)111–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)DET 0 – 3 IND · IND 75% → 79% +5IND 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q16:56Cade Cunningham makes driving layupDET 14 – 13 IND · DET 25% → 28% +4DET 25% → 28%+4 pts
- Q16:15Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)DET 14 – 16 IND · IND 72% → 77% +5IND 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q15:51Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot step back jumpshotDET 16 – 19 IND · IND 73% → 79% +5IND 73% → 79%+5 pts
- Q15:25Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)DET 16 – 22 IND · IND 78% → 83% +5IND 78% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8
- IND 78%
- Fair odds
- IND -296
- DET +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 118.2 – 126.5 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +44 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +220 Elo | IND 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.9 | Points scored | 123.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 122.328th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 117.226th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 104.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–23 | Road vs home | 17–1116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.