Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints34
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–102
- Q421.0Miles McBride makes 20-foot pullup jump shot116–102
- Q432.1Miles McBride defensive rebound116–100
- Q436.0Jaylen Brown misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot116–100
- Q455.2Jaylen Brown defensive rebound116–100
- Q458.1DaQuan Jeffries misses 25-foot three point jumper116–100
- Q41:06Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound116–100
- Q41:09Jaylen Brown misses free throw 2 of 2116–100
- Q41:09Jacob Toppin enters the game for Josh Hart116–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:00Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 58 – 54 NY · NY 26% → 34% +7NY 26% → 34%+7 pts
- Q311:28Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)BOS 62 – 61 NY · NY 33% → 42% +8NY 33% → 42%+8 pts
- Q39:53Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 67 – 64 NY · BOS 55% → 64% +9BOS 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q38:46Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 70 – 66 NY · BOS 58% → 67% +9BOS 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q38:24Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotBOS 73 – 66 NY · BOS 67% → 75% +8BOS 67% → 75%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- NY +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.9 – 110.6 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1664 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −8 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Julius Randle −31 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +76 Elo | BOS 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 114.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.2 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 116.110th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 111.37th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–9 | Road vs home | 19–88th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−8 Elo- Julius Randle dislocated right shoulder−31 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.