Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints24
- Ayo DosunmuAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints22
- Zion WilliamsonAssists11
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q49.1Coby White defensive rebound114–106
- Q49.1Brandon Ingram misses 24-foot three point jumper114–106
- Q411.1Pelicans Full timeout114–106
- Q411.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2114–106
- Q411.1Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2113–106
- Q411.1Jordan Hawkins personal foul112–106
- Q412.1Brandon Ingram out of bounds lost ball turnover112–106
- Q418.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2112–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:44Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 23-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)CHI 96 – 92 NO · NO 17% → 31% +14NO 17% → 31%+14 pts
- Q44:32Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)CHI 98 – 95 NO · NO 18% → 34% +16NO 18% → 34%+16 pts
- Q43:31Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 103 – 97 NO · CHI 69% → 86% +17CHI 69% → 86%+17 pts
- Q453.0Jonas Valanciunas makes two point shotCHI 108 – 106 NO · NO 7% → 23% +17NO 7% → 23%+17 pts
- Q430.1DeMar DeRozan makes 24-foot three pointerCHI 111 – 106 NO · CHI 84% → >99% +16CHI 84% → >99%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4.5
- NO 67%
- Fair odds
- NO -159
- CHI +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.9 – 114.4 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +37 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +122 Elo | NO 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 116.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 112.08th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +4.37th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.613th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 111.47th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 17–1115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+37 Elo- Jose Alvarado suspended by league−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.