Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints45
- Luka DoncicAssists14
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints31
- Evan MobleyAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–121
- Q40.0(00:00) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)119–121
- Q40.0Max Strus makes 59-foot three pointer (Evan Mobley assists)119–121
- Q42.1P.J. Washington makes layup (Luka Doncic assists)119–118
- Q48.1Kyrie Irving enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.117–118
- Q48.1Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Josh Green117–118
- Q48.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Donovan Mitchell117–118
- Q48.1Jarrett Allen enters the game for Darius Garland117–118
- Q48.1Mavericks Full timeout117–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:52Donovan Mitchell makes 29-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)DAL 113 – 115 CLE · CLE 43% → 73% +30CLE 43% → 73%+30 pts
- Q445.1Josh Green makes dunk (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 115 – 115 CLE · DAL 19% → 48% +29DAL 19% → 48%+29 pts
- Q429.1Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point shotDAL 115 – 118 CLE · CLE 52% → 94% +43CLE 52% → 94%+43 pts
- Q42.1P.J. Washington makes layup (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 119 – 118 CLE · DAL 3% → 97% +95DAL 3% → 97%+95 pts
- Q40.0Max Strus makes 59-foot three pointer (Evan Mobley assists)DAL 119 – 121 CLE · CLE 0% → 100% +100CLE 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Fair odds
- CLE -184
- DAL +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.2 – 115.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +80 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +146 Elo | CLE 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 114.416th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 11th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 114.416th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 109.12nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.2 | Pace | 99.524th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 18–1011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.