Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Luka DoncicRebounds6
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints33
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–133
- Q40.1shot clock turnover111–133
- Q424.1shot clock turnover111–133
- Q448.1Pacers defensive team rebound111–133
- Q451.0Jaden Hardy misses two point shot111–133
- Q41:02Isaiah Jackson makes dunk (Obi Toppin assists)111–133
- Q41:05Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound111–131
- Q41:08Jaden Hardy misses 26-foot step back jumpshot111–131
- Q41:20T.J. McConnell makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Obi Toppin assists)111–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:05Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 78 – 82 IND · DAL 27% → 36% +9DAL 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q321.1Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 91 – 98 IND · DAL 15% → 23% +8DAL 15% → 23%+8 pts
- Q49:24Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot step back jumpshotDAL 98 – 104 IND · DAL 14% → 24% +9DAL 14% → 24%+9 pts
- Q48:37Ben Sheppard makes 26-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)DAL 100 – 107 IND · IND 69% → 81% +12IND 69% → 81%+12 pts
- Q48:03Obi Toppin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Smith assists)DAL 100 – 110 IND · IND 82% → 90% +8IND 82% → 90%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- IND 49%
- Fair odds
- IND -106
- DAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 122.3 – 122.7 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | +44 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +6 Elo | DAL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 123.61st of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 122.228th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 118.43rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 117.125th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.2 | Pace | 104.42nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 18–1114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.