Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints33
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints25
- Draymond GreenAssists12
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–122
- Q40.0Warriors offensive team rebound125–122
- Q40.1Lester Quinones misses 54-foot three point pullup jump shot125–122
- Q42.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2125–122
- Q42.0Lester Quinones enters the game for Moses Moody124–122
- Q42.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2124–122
- Q42.0Klay Thompson personal take foul123–122
- Q44.1Chris Paul makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)123–122
- Q46.0Moses Moody enters the game for Brandin Podziemski123–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:49Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 114 – 114 GS · CHI 23% → 47% +23CHI 23% → 47%+23 pts
- Q41:12Coby White makes 9-foot two point shot (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 116 – 116 GS · CHI 24% → 48% +24CHI 24% → 48%+24 pts
- Q443.1DeMar DeRozan makes 7-foot two point shotCHI 118 – 116 GS · CHI 48% → 79% +31CHI 48% → 79%+31 pts
- Q439.1Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)CHI 118 – 119 GS · GS 20% → 69% +49GS 20% → 69%+49 pts
- Q426.0DeMar DeRozan makes 17-foot pullup jump shotCHI 120 – 119 GS · CHI 28% → 70% +42CHI 28% → 70%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 71%
- Fair odds
- GS -170
- CHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.0 – 117.0 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | GS and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | +19 | CHI: Usual rotation · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +157 Elo | GS 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 118.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 116.818th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 115.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 113.516th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 17–1520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.