Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints25
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds13
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists11
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–105
- Q45.0Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound120–105
- Q48.0Jalen McDaniels misses 24-foot three point jumper120–105
- Q415.0Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointer120–105
- Q434.1Moses Moody defensive rebound117–105
- Q437.1Ochai Agbaji misses 25-foot three point jumper117–105
- Q446.0Trayce Jackson-Davis makes tip shot117–105
- Q446.0Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound115–105
- Q446.1Moses Moody misses two point shot115–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:22RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)GS 55 – 60 TOR · TOR 48% → 57% +9TOR 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q310:11Stephen Curry makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotGS 66 – 66 TOR · GS 48% → 57% +9GS 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:02Klay Thompson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 69 – 68 TOR · GS 50% → 60% +9GS 50% → 60%+9 pts
- Q35:26Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 80 – 73 TOR · GS 69% → 78% +8GS 69% → 78%+8 pts
- Q411:19D.J. Carton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)GS 94 – 89 TOR · TOR 16% → 25% +9TOR 16% → 25%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 68%
- Fair odds
- GS -151
- TOR +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 120.8 – 117.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +47 | −18 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +129 Elo | GS 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 114.616th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −3.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 112.819th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 115.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 12–1724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.