Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists16
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints28
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists9
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–125
- Q413.1RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)136–125
- Q422.1A.J. Lawson makes tip shot136–122
- Q422.1A.J. Lawson offensive rebound134–122
- Q424.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 23-foot three point jumper134–122
- Q439.1Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2134–122
- Q439.1A.J. Lawson enters the game for Luka Doncic134–121
- Q439.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Kyrie Irving134–121
- Q439.1Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 1 of 2134–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:20RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)DAL 68 – 70 TOR · TOR 39% → 48% +9TOR 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q310:32Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 71 – 72 TOR · DAL 45% → 55% +9DAL 45% → 55%+9 pts
- Q38:34Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)DAL 75 – 79 TOR · TOR 46% → 55% +9TOR 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q38:13P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)DAL 78 – 79 TOR · DAL 44% → 54% +10DAL 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q34:15Kelly Olynyk makes 26-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)DAL 91 – 86 TOR · TOR 19% → 27% +8TOR 19% → 27%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 63%
- Fair odds
- DAL -156
- TOR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 120.5 – 117.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +65 | −22 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +94 Elo | DAL 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 114.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 117.520th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −3.024th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.714th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 12–1624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.