Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds13
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints24
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–121
- Q40.1Trae Young makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Saddiq Bey assists)123–121
- Q411.1Bruce Brown makes driving dunk (Kelly Olynyk assists)123–118
- Q413.0Trae Young personal take foul121–118
- Q415.1Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Ochai Agbaji121–118
- Q415.1Saddiq Bey enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic121–118
- Q415.1Dejounte Murray steps out of bounds turnover121–118
- Q418.1Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Kelly Olynyk121–118
- Q418.1Clint Capela enters the game for Saddiq Bey121–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:36Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 110 – 105 ATL · TOR 56% → 73% +17TOR 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q42:57De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)TOR 114 – 112 ATL · ATL 17% → 38% +20ATL 17% → 38%+20 pts
- Q42:28Kelly Olynyk makes 14-foot two point shotTOR 116 – 112 ATL · TOR 64% → 79% +15TOR 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q42:06Saddiq Bey makes driving layupTOR 116 – 114 ATL · ATL 18% → 34% +16ATL 18% → 34%+16 pts
- Q41:18Gary Trent Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 119 – 114 ATL · TOR 71% → 93% +22TOR 71% → 93%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -204
- TOR +204 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 120.0 – 125.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | +1 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −1 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +93 Elo | ATL 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 121.33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 123.929th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.3 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 116.57th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 118.929th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.5 | Pace | 103.53rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–20 | Road vs home | 13–1522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+1 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu sprained left toe−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.