Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists12
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints34
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists7
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–122
- Q44.1Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound130–122
- Q46.1Andrew Nembhard misses 27-foot three point jumper130–122
- Q47.1Pascal Siakam offensive rebound130–122
- Q410.0Scottie Barnes blocks Pascal Siakam 's 28-foot three point jumper130–122
- Q416.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 1130–122
- Q416.1Andrew Nembhard shooting foul129–122
- Q416.1Scottie Barnes makes dunk (Kelly Olynyk assists)129–122
- Q421.0Raptors Full timeout127–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:16Gradey Dick makes 28-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 93 – 90 IND · TOR 41% → 53% +13TOR 41% → 53%+13 pts
- Q49:48Ochai Agbaji makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 98 – 96 IND · TOR 37% → 50% +14TOR 37% → 50%+14 pts
- Q49:22Bennedict Mathurin makes 31-foot three pointerTOR 98 – 99 IND · IND 49% → 63% +14IND 49% → 63%+14 pts
- Q48:02Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 105 – 102 IND · TOR 42% → 57% +15TOR 42% → 57%+15 pts
- Q47:14Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotTOR 110 – 102 IND · TOR 68% → 81% +13TOR 68% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6
- IND 73%
- Fair odds
- IND -219
- TOR +219 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 118.0 – 124.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −25 | +48 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +168 Elo | IND 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 123.71st of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 122.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.2 | Margin | +1.713th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 118.53rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 116.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.6 | Pace | 104.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–20 | Road vs home | 19–1113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.