Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Chris PaulAssists6
- Stephen CurryRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints27
- Josh HartAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–99
- Q49.2Jonathan Kuminga defensive rebound110–99
- Q412.0Josh Hart misses 25-foot three point jumper110–99
- Q418.0Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2110–99
- Q418.0Chris Paul makes free throw 1 of 2109–99
- Q418.0Miles McBride personal take foul108–99
- Q423.2Isaiah Hartenstein makes driving dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)108–99
- Q430.0Moses Moody makes 9-foot two point shot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)108–97
- Q437.0Isaiah Hartenstein makes dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)106–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:16Stephen Curry makes 24-foot step back jumpshotGS 53 – 44 NY · GS 68% → 76% +7GS 68% → 76%+7 pts
- Q32:39Jalen Brunson makes 22-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)GS 73 – 67 NY · NY 19% → 27% +9NY 19% → 27%+9 pts
- Q32:26Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)GS 76 – 67 NY · GS 73% → 81% +9GS 73% → 81%+9 pts
- Q47:52Alec Burks makes 3-foot two point shot (Jericho Sims assists)GS 89 – 83 NY · NY 15% → 21% +7NY 15% → 21%+7 pts
- Q45:49Jonathan Kuminga makes two point shotGS 92 – 85 NY · GS 78% → 86% +8GS 78% → 86%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 55%
- Fair odds
- GS -111
- NY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 114.1 – 113.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | −25 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +33 Elo | GS 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 113.819th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 109.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 115.911th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 111.99th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 20–109th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.