New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints26
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints23
- Miles McBrideAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–92
- Q44.2Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound115–92
- Q47.1Charlie Brown Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper115–92
- Q422.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dereon Seabron assists)115–92
- Q437.1Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound112–92
- Q439.0Miles McBride misses 26-foot three point jumper112–92
- Q449.1Jacob Toppin defensive rebound112–92
- Q451.0Jalen Crutcher misses driving floating jump shot112–92
- Q41:07Jericho Sims makes dunk (Miles McBride assists)112–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:00Bojan Bogdanovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NO 39 – 37 NY · NY 28% → 35% +7NY 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q254.0Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)NO 48 – 45 NY · NO 59% → 67% +8NO 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q310:38Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 51 – 47 NY · NO 62% → 70% +8NO 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q317.1Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alec Burks assists)NO 74 – 67 NY · NY 12% → 19% +7NY 12% → 19%+7 pts
- Q411:25Matt Ryan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 77 – 67 NY · NO 82% → 89% +7NO 82% → 89%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3
- NO 62%
- Fair odds
- NO -168
- NY +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 111.4 – 107.5 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | −95 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Jalen Brunson −71, Isaiah Hartenstein −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +82 Elo | NO 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 114.219th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +4.36th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 116.110th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 111.79th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 20–98th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−95 Elo- Jalen Brunson neck injury−71 Elo
- Isaiah Hartenstein left achilles tendon−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–0 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.