Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints23
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds7
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints29
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Stephen CurryRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–125
- Q416.0AJ Green bad pass (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)90–125
- Q416.1Bucks offensive team rebound90–125
- Q417.0Andre Jackson Jr. misses two point shot90–125
- Q421.1Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound90–125
- Q424.1Gui Santos misses 26-foot step back jumpshot90–125
- Q431.1Lester Quinones defensive rebound90–125
- Q435.0AJ Green misses 27-foot three point jumper90–125
- Q443.08 second turnover90–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:56Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)MIL 8 – 7 GS · GS 41% → 47% +6GS 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q19:16Brandin Podziemski makes 28-foot jump bank shot (Jonathan Kuminga assists)MIL 8 – 10 GS · GS 47% → 54% +6GS 47% → 54%+6 pts
- Q16:19Stephen Curry makes 27-foot step back jumpshotMIL 16 – 21 GS · GS 54% → 60% +7GS 54% → 60%+7 pts
- Q15:30Damian Lillard makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jae Crowder assists)MIL 19 – 21 GS · MIL 40% → 46% +7MIL 40% → 46%+7 pts
- Q14:50Stephen Curry makes 32-foot three pointerMIL 19 – 26 GS · GS 58% → 65% +6GS 58% → 65%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -103
- GS +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.6 – 118.3 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +1 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +5 Elo | MIL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.4 | Points scored | 118.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 117.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 115.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 113.918th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 16–1520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.