Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Lester QuinonesPoints17
- Chris PaulAssists7
- Gui SantosRebounds9
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Oshae BrissettRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–140
- Q48.1shot clock turnover88–140
- Q432.1Trayce Jackson-Davis out of bounds bad pass turnover88–140
- Q436.2Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot88–140
- Q445.1Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound88–137
- Q446.1Lester Quinones misses 26-foot step back jumpshot88–137
- Q41:04Payton Pritchard loose ball foul88–137
- Q41:04Warriors defensive team rebound88–137
- Q41:06Xavier Tillman misses 27-foot three point jumper88–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:59Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)GS 8 – 8 BOS · GS 32% → 38% +6GS 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q19:26Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)GS 10 – 11 BOS · BOS 58% → 64% +6BOS 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q19:04Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Derrick White assists)GS 12 – 14 BOS · BOS 60% → 66% +6BOS 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q18:44Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 14 – 17 BOS · BOS 62% → 68% +6BOS 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q15:44Jaylen Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 21 – 24 BOS · BOS 62% → 68% +6BOS 62% → 68%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4
- BOS 66%
- Fair odds
- BOS -165
- GS +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.7 – 119.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1686 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +24 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +113 Elo | BOS 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 121.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 110.26th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +10.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 120.31st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 28–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.