Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Mo BambaRebounds6
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–117
- Q49.2Payton Pritchard defensive rebound99–117
- Q411.1Ricky Council IV misses driving layup99–117
- Q420.176ers defensive team rebound99–117
- Q422.1Oshae Brissett misses 26-foot three point jumper99–117
- Q433.1Ricky Council IV makes free throw 2 of 299–117
- Q433.1Ricky Council IV makes free throw 1 of 298–117
- Q433.176ers Full timeout97–116
- Q433.1Sam Hauser personal foul97–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:16Mo Bamba makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)PHI 44 – 40 BOS · PHI 28% → 35% +7PHI 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q49:57Cameron Payne makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ricky Council IV assists)PHI 83 – 88 BOS · PHI 10% → 17% +7PHI 10% → 17%+7 pts
- Q49:22Cameron Payne makes 29-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 86 – 91 BOS · PHI 10% → 17% +7PHI 10% → 17%+7 pts
- Q48:50Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 89 – 91 BOS · PHI 17% → 28% +11PHI 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q47:55Jrue Holiday makes 14-foot two point shotPHI 89 – 93 BOS · BOS 72% → 80% +8BOS 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -12
- BOS 88%
- Fair odds
- BOS -385
- PHI +385 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 109.6 – 119.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1674 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +49 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +340 Elo | BOS 87.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 78.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 120.75th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 110.46th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +10.31st of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.6 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 26–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.