Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints37
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–138
- Q420.1Oshae Brissett makes free throw 1 of 1110–138
- Q420.1Dwight Powell shooting foul110–137
- Q420.1Oshae Brissett makes driving layup (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)110–137
- Q440.1Josh Green makes 1-foot dunk (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)110–135
- Q443.0Payton Pritchard lost ball turnover (Derrick Jones Jr. steals)108–135
- Q41:02Sam Hauser defensive rebound108–135
- Q41:04Jaden Hardy misses 27-foot three point jumper108–135
- Q41:06Oshae Brissett kicked ball violation108–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:45P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)DAL 70 – 74 BOS · DAL 20% → 27% +7DAL 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q38:30Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)DAL 70 – 77 BOS · BOS 73% → 80% +7BOS 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q36:36P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 77 – 79 BOS · DAL 24% → 33% +8DAL 24% → 33%+8 pts
- Q35:28Jaylen Brown makes 23-foot three point shot (Jrue Holiday assists)DAL 79 – 84 BOS · BOS 67% → 76% +9BOS 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q35:03Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)DAL 79 – 87 BOS · BOS 76% → 83% +7BOS 76% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Fair odds
- BOS -205
- DAL +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.4 – 120.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1677 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +55 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +182 Elo | BOS 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 120.75th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +10.41st of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 27–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.