Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints29
- Ayo DosunmuAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Jazz- John CollinsPoints25
- Collin SextonAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–117
- Q42.0Jazz offensive team rebound119–117
- Q42.0Collin Sexton misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot119–117
- Q44.1Coby White steps out of bounds turnover119–117
- Q44.1Jazz Full timeout119–117
- Q44.1Coby White defensive rebound119–117
- Q47.2Jordan Clarkson misses 29-foot three point jumper119–117
- Q49.1Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Omer Yurtseven119–117
- Q49.1Jazz Full timeout119–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:30Jordan Clarkson makes 4-foot driving dunkCHI 111 – 111 UTAH · UTAH 32% → 50% +18UTAH 32% → 50%+18 pts
- Q41:59Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)CHI 112 – 114 UTAH · UTAH 40% → 69% +30UTAH 40% → 69%+30 pts
- Q41:01DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotCHI 116 – 114 UTAH · CHI 50% → 76% +26CHI 50% → 76%+26 pts
- Q49.1Jordan Clarkson makes technical free throwCHI 117 – 117 UTAH · UTAH 18% → 50% +32UTAH 18% → 50%+32 pts
- Q49.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2CHI 118 – 117 UTAH · CHI 50% → 82% +32CHI 50% → 82%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 55%
- Fair odds
- CHI -104
- UTAH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 117.7 – 117.4 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −7 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +35 Elo | CHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 117.79th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 120.426th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −2.723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 114.215th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 116.825th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 102.27th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 19–1111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.