Utah Jazz at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints31
- Lauri MarkkanenAssists6
- Taylor HendricksRebounds13
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints37
- Terry RozierAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–126
- Q410.0Keyonte George makes driving layup120–126
- Q416.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2118–126
- Q416.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2118–125
- Q416.1Lauri Markkanen personal foul118–124
- Q416.1Bam Adebayo defensive rebound118–124
- Q420.1Lauri Markkanen misses two point shot118–124
- Q424.0Kris Dunn enters the game for Taylor Hendricks118–124
- Q424.0Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Duncan Robinson118–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:24Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 93 – 92 MIA · UTAH 36% → 49% +13UTAH 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q49:18Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 98 – 99 MIA · UTAH 28% → 41% +13UTAH 28% → 41%+13 pts
- Q45:09Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point shot (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 105 – 106 MIA · UTAH 23% → 40% +17UTAH 23% → 40%+17 pts
- Q44:56Jimmy Butler makes driving layupUTAH 105 – 108 MIA · MIA 60% → 72% +12MIA 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q44:22Caleb Martin makes 1-foot layup (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)UTAH 107 – 110 MIA · MIA 60% → 73% +13MIA 60% → 73%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5
- MIA 69%
- Fair odds
- MIA -156
- UTAH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.2 – 114.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +15 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MIA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +143 Elo | MIA 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 110.427th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.9 | Margin | +0.616th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 111.48th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.2 | Pace | 98.428th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 309–22 | Road vs home | 15–1319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+15 Elo- Tyler Herro right foot tendinitis−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.