Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Jordan ClarksonAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds12
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints22
- Dejounte MurrayAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–124
- Q415.0shot clock turnover97–124
- Q437.1Garrison Mathews defensive rebound97–124
- Q440.1Taylor Hendricks misses 23-foot three point jumper97–124
- Q441.2Talen Horton-Tucker offensive rebound97–124
- Q443.1Talen Horton-Tucker misses two point shot97–124
- Q443.1Talen Horton-Tucker offensive rebound97–124
- Q447.1Talen Horton-Tucker misses two point shot97–124
- Q454.1Kobe Bufkin makes 24-foot three pointer97–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:28Jalen Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)UTAH 41 – 50 ATL · ATL 64% → 72% +8ATL 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q39:43Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 53 – 61 ATL · UTAH 22% → 29% +7UTAH 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q38:30Collin Sexton makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotUTAH 56 – 63 ATL · UTAH 23% → 31% +8UTAH 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q38:13Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)UTAH 56 – 66 ATL · ATL 69% → 77% +8ATL 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q36:44Keyonte George makes 26-foot three pointer (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 60 – 68 ATL · UTAH 20% → 27% +8UTAH 20% → 27%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1
- UTAH 55%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -117
- ATL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 126.1 – 124.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −31 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +35 Elo | UTAH 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 121.14th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 123.329th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.4 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 118.530th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.2 | Pace | 103.44th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–20 | Road vs home | 14–1622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−31 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu left toe−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.