Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints19
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–109
- Q43.1shot clock turnover92–109
- Q424.2Jalen Johnson defensive rebound92–109
- Q429.0Cole Anthony misses 15-foot pullup jump shot92–109
- Q440.0Saddiq Bey makes dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)92–109
- Q442.2Anthony Black bad pass (Jalen Johnson steals)92–107
- Q444.0Magic offensive team rebound92–107
- Q445.0Jalen Johnson blocks Cole Anthony 's 2-foot driving layup92–107
- Q453.1Chuma Okeke defensive rebound92–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:50Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ORL 51 – 51 ATL · ATL 37% → 46% +9ATL 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q39:41Wendell Carter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 55 – 53 ATL · ORL 51% → 60% +9ORL 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q36:52Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 63 – 63 ATL · ORL 44% → 54% +10ORL 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q33:56Dejounte Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bruno Fernando assists)ORL 69 – 70 ATL · ATL 39% → 50% +11ATL 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q32:58Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bruno Fernando assists)ORL 69 – 73 ATL · ATL 50% → 61% +11ATL 50% → 61%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 64%
- Fair odds
- ORL -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 118.9 – 116.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | −39 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +104 Elo | ORL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 121.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 123.929th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 118.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.4 | Pace | 103.53rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 13–1622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−39 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu toe injury−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.