Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints22
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints26
- Jerami GrantAssists6
- Toumani CamaraRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–96
- Q420.1Jabari Walker enters the game for Toumani Camara106–96
- Q420.1Toumani Camara turnover106–96
- Q420.1Toumani Camara offensive foul106–96
- Q424.1Jimmy Butler out of bounds bad pass turnover106–96
- Q434.1Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2106–96
- Q434.1Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2106–95
- Q434.1Duncan Robinson shooting foul106–94
- Q438.2Jerami Grant defensive rebound106–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:57Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Kris Murray assists)MIA 59 – 63 POR · POR 44% → 54% +10POR 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q37:32Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 62 – 63 POR · MIA 46% → 56% +10MIA 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q36:01Nikola Jovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 67 – 67 POR · MIA 48% → 58% +10MIA 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q49:22Kevin Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)MIA 85 – 82 POR · MIA 56% → 69% +13MIA 56% → 69%+13 pts
- Q46:35Terry Rozier makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 94 – 88 POR · MIA 71% → 83% +13MIA 71% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -6.5
- MIA 74%
- Fair odds
- MIA -175
- POR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 108.5 – 104.3 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1363 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | −43 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +180 Elo | MIA 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 107.429th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 116.517th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −9.028th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 106.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 115.622nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 9–1925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+21 Elo- Tyler Herro left knee−1 Elo
Trail Blazers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.