Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- John CollinsPoints19
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- John CollinsRebounds10
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints29
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Moritz WagnerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–115
- Q45.1Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2107–115
- Q45.1Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2106–115
- Q45.1Cole Anthony enters the game for Jalen Suggs105–115
- Q45.1Jalen Suggs shooting foul105–115
- Q419.1John Collins defensive rebound105–115
- Q421.1Jalen Suggs misses free throw 2 of 2105–115
- Q421.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2105–115
- Q421.1John Collins personal take foul105–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:46Kris Dunn makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 92 – 93 ORL · UTAH 27% → 41% +14UTAH 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q46:13Taylor Hendricks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 97 – 97 ORL · UTAH 30% → 46% +16UTAH 30% → 46%+16 pts
- Q44:22Paolo Banchero makes two point shotUTAH 99 – 101 ORL · ORL 53% → 67% +13ORL 53% → 67%+13 pts
- Q42:50Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)UTAH 100 – 104 ORL · ORL 61% → 82% +21ORL 61% → 82%+21 pts
- Q41:42Jalen Suggs makes 24-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)UTAH 103 – 107 ORL · ORL 63% → 88% +25ORL 63% → 88%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4.5
- ORL 67%
- Fair odds
- ORL -154
- UTAH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.5 – 115.8 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −15 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +122 Elo | ORL 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 111.426th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 110.36th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.8 | Margin | +1.215th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–21 | Road vs home | 19–76th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.