Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Dennis SchroderPoints15
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists5
- Trendon WatfordRebounds7
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints21
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game82–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter82–108
- Q41.0Nets offensive team rebound81–108
- Q41.0Keon Johnson misses 22-foot jumper81–108
- Q45.1Caleb Houstan traveling82–108
- Q424.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 281–108
- Q424.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 281–108
- Q424.1Goga Bitadze shooting foul80–108
- Q433.18 second turnover80–108
- Q442.1Caleb Houstan defensive rebound79–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:11Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)BKN 2 – 3 ORL · ORL 67% → 72% +6ORL 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q110:48Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 5 – 3 ORL · BKN 28% → 34% +6BKN 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q19:50Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point shot (Caleb Houstan assists)BKN 5 – 6 ORL · ORL 66% → 72% +6ORL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q17:39Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 10 – 11 ORL · BKN 23% → 29% +5BKN 23% → 29%+5 pts
- Q15:39Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 15 – 17 ORL · BKN 22% → 27% +5BKN 22% → 27%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5.5
- ORL 71%
- Fair odds
- ORL -239
- BKN +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 104.5 – 111.2 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −22 | −38 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +151 Elo | ORL 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.5 | Points scored | 111.526th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 110.87th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.715th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 110.85th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–17 | Road vs home | 18–77th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 2–0 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.